Forex: AUD/USD extends the upside above 1.0300

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Aussie dollar keeps the upside momentum on Friday, as decent buying interest pushed the cross beyond the 1.0300 limestone after the US Payrolls.

In the view of Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at RBS, opinions regarding a rate cut by the RBA next week are pretty divided, with the AUD holding well around 1.02. “As such, a rate cut is increasingly likely with rates falling globally, metals prices weaker and China recovery stalling… But this will not necessarily be enough to get AUD below its 1.02/1.06 range, as even if the RBA cut rates near term it remains a relative high yielder. As such, the current search for yield that is underpinning global equities will also underpin the AUD”, commented Gibbs.

AUD/USD is now up 0.61% at 1.0311 with the next resistance at 1.0330 (low Apr.30) followed by 1.0343 (MA55d) and finally 1.0349 (MA21d).
On the downside, a breach of 1.0295 (MA10d) would expose 1.0240 (low May 3) and then 1.0221 (low Apr.23).

May 3, 2013

Forex Flash: USD/CAD to get squeezed back up to upper 1.02s near-term – TD Securities

Having pushed a little higher from the mid-week low around 1.0050 and picked up more ground late yesterday above key short-term resistance at 1.0100, TD Securities analysts believe the 1.0080/90 area should remain good support for the market in the near-term, while weakness below here would suggest the short-term potential at least for further losses. “We rather prefer to see downside potential from here as limited due to the broader (daily, see below) patterns looking more constructive. Intraday, we see support at 1.0080/90 and 1.0050. Resistance is 1.0140/50”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, adding that pattern-wise, the daily USD/CAD picture looks positive. “Tentative channel support seems to have held the market and the daily candlestick pattern is bullish (“morning star”), notwithstanding the modest push back against the rebound seen so far today”, they said, pointing to key support on a daily basis at 1.0050/60 and a modest squeeze back up to upper 1.02s near-term.

Forex Flash: Tracing the European outlook – BTMU

The ECB decision yesterday is very much the focus of the market today ahead of the key non-farm payrolls data from the US later. The 0.25-point cut and measures to be detailed helping to improve the asset-backed securities market in order to improve credit flows to the real economy were the key actions announced but it was the admission that the ECB had an open mind to cutting the deposit rate to negative territory that grabbed all the attention. According to the BTMU Research Team, “It certainly helped weaken the euro and helped reinforce the impression of an ECB wanting to act strongly.”