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6 Jun 2014
US NFP key risk event Friday -Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, walks us through the key events for Friday, with special attention to the Non-Farm Payrolls in the US.
Key Quotes
"The Asia-Pacific calendar offers no distraction from the US jobs report: Malaysia’s Apr trade data and a widely ignored Australian PMI. In Germany we will see Apr IP and trade data at 4pm Syd/2pm Sing/HK, with UK Apr trade data also due in the London morning. Canada’s May employment data is due at the same time as the US report, with the whipsaw expected to continue: consensus is +25k after -29k in Apr, but a stable unemployment rate at 6.9%."
"Westpac believes the risks to US May headline non-farm payrolls are skewed strongly to the weak side of the 215K consensus. April’s 288K headline jobs gain was the largest rise since Jan 2012. This is a very high base for May, probably helped by the unusually late Easter. One need not be especially bearish on the US economy to expect a headline well short of 215K. There is less risk of surprise in the separately-calculated unemployment rate; we agree with consensus of 6.4% vs 6.3% in April."
Key Quotes
"The Asia-Pacific calendar offers no distraction from the US jobs report: Malaysia’s Apr trade data and a widely ignored Australian PMI. In Germany we will see Apr IP and trade data at 4pm Syd/2pm Sing/HK, with UK Apr trade data also due in the London morning. Canada’s May employment data is due at the same time as the US report, with the whipsaw expected to continue: consensus is +25k after -29k in Apr, but a stable unemployment rate at 6.9%."
"Westpac believes the risks to US May headline non-farm payrolls are skewed strongly to the weak side of the 215K consensus. April’s 288K headline jobs gain was the largest rise since Jan 2012. This is a very high base for May, probably helped by the unusually late Easter. One need not be especially bearish on the US economy to expect a headline well short of 215K. There is less risk of surprise in the separately-calculated unemployment rate; we agree with consensus of 6.4% vs 6.3% in April."