When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Overview of the Australian jobs report

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for releasing monthly jobs report during early Asian markets on Thursday. The February month employment change and unemployment rate details will be the key to watch in the 00:30 GMT update. Market consensus suggests no change in the 5.0% seasonally adjusted unemployment rate while favoring a reduction in employment change number to 14.0K compared to 39.1K.

TD Securities expect overall firm but a soft monthly figure as their analysts say,

It’s employment time again and after a run of seasonally strong outcomes (+124k jobs in the four months) we look for a breather in February (mkt +15k but the range is substantial at -5k to +30k). February is strong month in original terms, but seasonal factors can and do account for this reliable increase. We look for no change in jobs, leaving annual employment growth at 2.2%. Combined with a step down in the participation rate to 65.6%, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5% for the third consecutive month.

However, Westpac is of view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its optimism surrounding job numbers despite expectations of a weak number this month but markets will take advantage of the reading. They say,

Australia’s February labour force survey is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. In the minutes of the 5 March Board meeting, RBA members “observed that labour market conditions had continued to improve, despite a slowing in the momentum of output growth in the second half of 2018.” The RBA will not drop its upbeat view of the labour market simply on a softer reading today. But with various other Australian data releases pointing to growth well short of RBA forecasts, markets will seize on any weakness in February employment. This includes what could be seen as statistical noise – Westpac’s forecast of -5k on total jobs is in large part payback from the 39k surge in January. Consensus is +15k, as it often is. Westpac looks for an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.1%, versus consensus for no change at 5.0%.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

While recent data from Australia continue to weigh on the RBA’s previous hawkish bias, the central bank still remains optimistic about the domestic employment scenario. As a result, unless registering extremely negative results, the February month jobs report might not highlight rate cut fears as indicated earlier by the RBA Governor and also by soft GDP figures earlier during the month.

The AUD/USD pair currently struggles around 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.7135 with 0.7160 comprising 100-day SMA being next on the radar. Alternatively, pair’s dip under 0.7060, backed by sluggish data, can recall 0.7020, 0.7000 and 0.6980 consecutive supports back on the chart.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Analysis: bullish ahead of key employment data

AUD/USD jumps on dovish Fed and takes out the 55-day ma at 0.7131, for a high of 0.7147

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).