USD/JPY: Under pressure? - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the USD/JPY pair has eroded its 3 month uptrend, with intraday Elliott wave counts being negative and the near term risk is for failure and a slide back to the 200 day ma at 110.86 then 109.77, the August low.

Key Quotes

“If the 109.77 August low were to give way, the June 8 low at 109.20 would be in focus. Failure there would imply a slide back to the 108.12 May 29 low and the mid-February high at 107.91. Should 112.23 hold this would target the top of the range at 113.87 (not favoured). A close above here is needed to confirm scope to the 114.55 October high.”

“Above the market lies the 114.55 October high and the 115.60 61.8% Fibonacci retracement - this represents very tough overhead resistance.”