EUR/USD upside corrective near term – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair could now attempt a test of 1.1875/1.1990 in the near term.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD remains near term upside corrective and the Elliott wave count is now suggesting scope for a deeper retracement into the 1.1875/1.1990 band and we must allow for this possibility. Intraday Elliott wave counts are conflicting however and saying that the correction has already ended and for now we will hold on to our short positions. Very near term while above the 1.1617 1 st June low we will assume an upside corrective bias. A move above the 20 day ma at 1.1752 should be the trigger for this deeper corrective phase”.

“Below 1.1617 will alleviate upside corrective pressure and signal a retest of the target band at 1.1553-1.1424. This is the location of the November 2017 low, the 200 week ma and the 50% retracement of the move from 2017-2018. Below 1.1420 would introduce scope to the 61.8% retracement at 1.1186”.