EUR/USD rallies could test 1.1962/1.2050 – Commerzbank

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional rallies in spot could extend to the 1.1962/1.2050 band.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD has sold off to and is recovering from the 55 week moving average at 1.1830. It has severed its accelerated downtrend and is starting to correct higher. We would allow for a rally into the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement band. This is located approximately 1.1962/1.2050. This ties in well with the November and early December 2017 highs at 1.1940/61, and the 200 day ma at 1.20195 (there is scope for 1.2070). Longer term we will allow for the May 2016 high at 1.1616 to be reached and the 1.1553 November 2017 low”.

“Our overall bearish bias is maintained while capped by the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2593”.