EUR/USD targets 200-DMA at 1.1948 this week - Barclays

The Barclays Research offers its outlook on the EUR/USD pair for the week ahead, with the main determinants likely to be the FOMC and ECB minutes.

Key Quotes:

“EURUSD having broken its support trend line.

This presents an opportunity to initiate a technical short EURUSD trade

Spot reference 1.2265, target 1.1948 (200d MA) with a stop loss at 1.2444.

This is also in line with our view that we see limited scope for EUR appreciation in 2018.

With the ECB's shift in policy now fully accepted by markets, its gradual path to normalization is unlikely to fuel gains for the single currency, which in our view is already around fair value.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes may read hawkish

In line with revisions to the dot plot

Especially against Chairman Powell's dismissal of those changes in the press conference

However, there is a risk that Thursday's ECB minutes reveal a similarly hawkish tilt.

With the decision to drop the pledge to step up APP matched by a desire for faster deposit rate hikes.”