Energy: Decreased inventories likely to stimulate firmer prices - Wells Fargo

According to analysts from Wells Fargo, oil supply and demand indicators of global petroleum suggest inventories are declining and that could lead to firmer prices in coming months. 

Key Quotes: 

“After a slight dip to start 2017, oil prices continued to rebound to end the year. Leaner global inventories of petroleum and other liquid fuel products in 2017 led the increase in prices. However, after seven consecutive months of increases, Brent oil prices declined in February. Oil supply and demand indicators of global petroleum suggest inventories are declining. Decreased inventories will likely stimulate firmer prices in coming months.”

“Modest rebounds in prices have been supportive of increases in rig counts. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is projecting a slight shortage in the oil market throughout the first quarter, although production is expected to outpace consumption over the next couple of years.”

“According to the EIA, total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million barrels per day in 2017. The EIA projects that U.S. production will average 10.7 million barrels per day in 2018, which would mark a record high annual average U.S. production level.”

“Anticipated decreases in global demand as well as lower usage for coal, leads to lower expectations surrounding its production. Coal usage continues to give way to natural gas. Natural gas prices remained stable throughout 2017. Low inventories coupled with extremely cold temperatures in January caused prices to rise. However, weather moderation has resulted in a stabilization in prices for February.”