When is UK Jobs and how could it affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the number of people seeking jobless benefits increased slightly by 7.5k in the three months to April, compared to an unexpected increase of 25.5k booked in the three months to March.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7% during the period. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to March are expected to tick higher to 2.4% versus 2.3% last, while ex-bonuses, the wages are expected to remain unchanged at 2.2%.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

 Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 60 pips in deviations up to 2 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 85 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A positive surprise claimant count and unemployment rate could provide much-needed impetus to cable, prompting the rate to rise back above 1.2950, beyond which 1.2961 (May 9 high) could be tested en route 1.2990 (7-week high).

On the flip side, should the data disappoint, we could see the GBP/USD pair falling back below 1.2900 levels, opening doors for a test of 1.2872 (May 15 low). A subsequent break below the last, next support lies at 1.2842/29 (May 12 & 4 low).

Key notes

UK: Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.7% for March - TDS

UK unemployment rate (3M average) likely to remain unchanged – Danske Bank

About UK jobs

The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).