US nonfarm payroll growth expected to rebound to +210k in June – Goldman Sachs

Zach Pandl, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, forecasts that the US nonfarm payroll growth rebounded to +210k n in June from just +38k in May.

Key Quotes

“In part the pickup reflects the conclusion of a strike at Verizon Communications—this alone accounts for 70k of the month-over-month swing. However, we also see scope for improvement beyond Verizon, as other labor market data have generally looked encouraging.

We expect a small increase in the unemployment rate to 4.8% after its three tenths decline in May. Data from the household survey have been volatile in recent months, but the broad trends—participation stabilizing and job growth remaining strong enough to reduce slack over time—still look intact. We see a low month-over-month gain in average hourly earnings due to calendar quirks, but the year-over-year rate should edge higher.”