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21 Jan 2016
ECB to maintain status quo but likely to highlight its capacity to act – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that with today a fairly quiet one for economic data, the focus looks set to be on the ECB meeting shortly after midday.
Key Quotes
“We share the view of our European economists in that we expect neither a change in policy nor a clear signal of further easing. We do however think that the Council will highlight its capacity to act, the ‘open-ended’ nature of its policies and the flexibility around the asset purchase programme.
Our colleagues take the view that the ECB will be reactive in addressing the risks to its inflation mandate and will wait for more visibility on the three key fronts; China, the oil price shock and inflation expectations.
Looking further ahead to March, while our colleagues’ baseline case remains for now that the ECB is done, clearly there is material risk of further easing and for this to happen the most important number will be the staff inflation forecast for 2018. From our side we can't help thinking that the ECB will eventually be forced to do more but then again we've always felt the FED will eventually do QE4 so that shows our biases.”
Key Quotes
“We share the view of our European economists in that we expect neither a change in policy nor a clear signal of further easing. We do however think that the Council will highlight its capacity to act, the ‘open-ended’ nature of its policies and the flexibility around the asset purchase programme.
Our colleagues take the view that the ECB will be reactive in addressing the risks to its inflation mandate and will wait for more visibility on the three key fronts; China, the oil price shock and inflation expectations.
Looking further ahead to March, while our colleagues’ baseline case remains for now that the ECB is done, clearly there is material risk of further easing and for this to happen the most important number will be the staff inflation forecast for 2018. From our side we can't help thinking that the ECB will eventually be forced to do more but then again we've always felt the FED will eventually do QE4 so that shows our biases.”