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3 Nov 2015
NZDAUD: Prevailing uptrend - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) - Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests the NZDAUD cross last week resumed its uptrend and shows no obvious signs of an imminent reversal apart from being slightly overbought technically and slightly overvalued.
Key Quotes
“We thus maintain a cautious bullish bias and target 0.9600 during the week ahead.”
3 months ahead: Arguing for a lower cross is the RBNZ expected to ease again in December, whereas the RBA should remain on hold for some time. However, commodities could prop the cross up during the next few months, iron ore expected to remain weak, but dairy prices to rise if an El Nino drought takes hold. We thus raise our multi-month target to the 0.94-0.96 area.
1 year ahead: We expect the cross to trade at around 0.92 in a year’s time as the relative monetary policy paths dominate other considerations.
Key Quotes
“We thus maintain a cautious bullish bias and target 0.9600 during the week ahead.”
3 months ahead: Arguing for a lower cross is the RBNZ expected to ease again in December, whereas the RBA should remain on hold for some time. However, commodities could prop the cross up during the next few months, iron ore expected to remain weak, but dairy prices to rise if an El Nino drought takes hold. We thus raise our multi-month target to the 0.94-0.96 area.
1 year ahead: We expect the cross to trade at around 0.92 in a year’s time as the relative monetary policy paths dominate other considerations.