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29 Jun 2015
AUD/USD seen at 0.75 by year-end – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities believe the pair could head towards the 0.75 area by end of 2015.
Key Quotes
“Strong +0.9% Q1 GDP only highlights the stark contrast between strong volumes (i.e. mining production) and weak incomes (falling wages and terms of trade)”.
“On basic math alone it upgraded our 2015 GDP forecast from 2.25% to 2.5%, although it is still sub-trend”.
“The glacial pace of non-mining activity growth will keep the RBA focused on lowering the exchange rate, although it remains highly reluctant to lower the cash rate”.
“The AUD is trading at the highs of the recent $US0.76-0.78 trading range, underpinned by a not-dovish-enough RBA, a couple of strong data reports such as May employment (u-rate falls to 6.0%) and the key iron ore price remains over $US60/t”.
“As the RBA is far more comfortable with an AUD closer to $US0.75-0.76, we expect some dovish tones to be 'leaked' to the wider public soon. We remain with our $US0.75 year-end target”.
Key Quotes
“Strong +0.9% Q1 GDP only highlights the stark contrast between strong volumes (i.e. mining production) and weak incomes (falling wages and terms of trade)”.
“On basic math alone it upgraded our 2015 GDP forecast from 2.25% to 2.5%, although it is still sub-trend”.
“The glacial pace of non-mining activity growth will keep the RBA focused on lowering the exchange rate, although it remains highly reluctant to lower the cash rate”.
“The AUD is trading at the highs of the recent $US0.76-0.78 trading range, underpinned by a not-dovish-enough RBA, a couple of strong data reports such as May employment (u-rate falls to 6.0%) and the key iron ore price remains over $US60/t”.
“As the RBA is far more comfortable with an AUD closer to $US0.75-0.76, we expect some dovish tones to be 'leaked' to the wider public soon. We remain with our $US0.75 year-end target”.