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14 Jan 2015
US Dec retail sales figures much weaker than expected – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - ING’s Rob Carnell, shares that the US retail sales came way below the consensus forecast of -0.1MoM, registering a number of -0.9%MoM, shedding doubts on the hypothesis that falling gas might boost consumer spending.
Key Quotes
“Surprisingly weak US retail sales figures may shed some doubt on the hypothesis that falling gasoline prices will provide a helpful boost (analogous to a tax cut) to consumer spending.”
“It is important to bear in mind that these US retail sales figures are in current dollars, and as such, the -0.9%mom decline in sales at gasoline stations can safely be ignored. But stripping out gas from retail sales, still leaves this measure down by 0.4% on the previous month, and most of the other so-called “core” measures, including the control group excluding food, gasoline, building materials and auto dealers was also down 0.2%mom, with downward revisions to previous months.”
“In fact, the sub-components are broadly negative, with one or two exceptions. This decline is not the result only of a freak fall in one part of the survey.”
Key Quotes
“Surprisingly weak US retail sales figures may shed some doubt on the hypothesis that falling gasoline prices will provide a helpful boost (analogous to a tax cut) to consumer spending.”
“It is important to bear in mind that these US retail sales figures are in current dollars, and as such, the -0.9%mom decline in sales at gasoline stations can safely be ignored. But stripping out gas from retail sales, still leaves this measure down by 0.4% on the previous month, and most of the other so-called “core” measures, including the control group excluding food, gasoline, building materials and auto dealers was also down 0.2%mom, with downward revisions to previous months.”
“In fact, the sub-components are broadly negative, with one or two exceptions. This decline is not the result only of a freak fall in one part of the survey.”