Back
13 Nov 2014
China: October data weaker than expected, but signs of stabilization in investments – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank notes that the slightly weaker than expected Chinese data released this morning suggests continued moderate downward pressure on growth.
Key Quotes
“However, on a positive note there was also signs of stabilization in investment demand. Weaker Investment demand has been the main driver behind the recent slowdown in growth.”
“The biggest short term downside risk now appears to possible slower export growth due to weaker global growth”
“We maintain our forecast that GDP growth will stay unchanged at 7.3% y/y in Q4 and our call of 7.4% GDP growth for 2014 as a whole – slightly below the government’s 7.5% growth target for 2014.“
“With sign that the minor easing measures targeting the housing market has started to work we have also more confidence in our call that PBOC will not cut interest rates.”
“As long as growth does not slow severely, we also expect a continued moderate appreciation of CNY against USD supported by a renewed increase in China’s trade balance surplus.”
Key Quotes
“However, on a positive note there was also signs of stabilization in investment demand. Weaker Investment demand has been the main driver behind the recent slowdown in growth.”
“The biggest short term downside risk now appears to possible slower export growth due to weaker global growth”
“We maintain our forecast that GDP growth will stay unchanged at 7.3% y/y in Q4 and our call of 7.4% GDP growth for 2014 as a whole – slightly below the government’s 7.5% growth target for 2014.“
“With sign that the minor easing measures targeting the housing market has started to work we have also more confidence in our call that PBOC will not cut interest rates.”
“As long as growth does not slow severely, we also expect a continued moderate appreciation of CNY against USD supported by a renewed increase in China’s trade balance surplus.”