EUR/CZK: 24.00 is the pain threshold for the CNB – ING

The Czech Koruna softened on Monday to its weakest level since the beginning of the year. Economists at ING analyze CZK outlook.

Weak Koruna may be a reason for the CNB to delay rate cuts this year

For the bank board, strong FX has been the basis of communication for a long time and therefore we think 24.00 is the pain threshold for the Czech National Bank (CNB).

We expect the board members to attempt some pushback against a weak Koruna and also a very dovish market pricing. 

In our view, it is the weak Koruna that may be a reason for the board to delay rate cuts this year. In the meantime, however, if EUR/CZK moves higher again we expect the CNB may enter the market earlier than what used to be the usual intervention level last year, i.e. 24.60-70 EUR/CZK.